Germany’s political landscape has been fundamentally shaken by the rise of the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). But what drives millions of Germans to support a party that mainstream politicians describe as extremist? Recent psychological analyses, particularly insights from Erik Ahrens, a former AfD strategist, offer a sobering picture that goes beyond simple explanations of racism or protest voting.
The Ocean Floor Metaphor
Ahrens introduces a striking metaphor: the AfD as the “ocean floor” of German society. Imagine society as an ocean, he suggests, where most people navigate the waters at various depths. Some swim near the surface in prosperity, others tread water in the middle class, but there’s always a point where people sink. When individuals fall through the social safety nets, past the reach of traditional parties and institutions, they eventually hit bottom—the ocean floor. That’s where the AfD waits.
This isn’t merely about economic hardship, though that plays a role. Ahrens identifies something more insidious: what he calls “politicized depression.” These aren’t just voters who are temporarily dissatisfied or seeking change. They’re individuals trapped in a profound pessimism, a fundamental belief that the future holds nothing but decline. Their orientation to the world is defined by anxiety, loss, and the conviction that traditional politics has failed them irreversibly.
The Psychology of Order and Fear
Further analysis reveals deeper psychological patterns among AfD supporters. Research identifies two dominant traits: an intense craving for order and high levels of neuroticism—a psychological term for susceptibility to anxiety and emotional instability.
These aren’t people looking for nuanced policy discussions or incremental reforms. They want clear rules, strong authority, and simple answers to complex questions. In a world that feels increasingly chaotic—with migration, climate change, technological disruption, and geopolitical uncertainty—the AfD offers what appears to be clarity. It promises to restore order, to make Germany “German” again, to draw clear lines between us and them.
The high neuroticism means these voters are particularly receptive to fear-based messaging. They’re not being irrational; they’re responding to genuine anxieties about the future. But their psychological disposition makes them especially vulnerable to parties that traffic in apocalyptic scenarios and promise protection from perceived threats.
Authenticity Over Strategy
One of the most counterintuitive findings concerns the AfD’s success on social media. Conventional wisdom suggests they must be running sophisticated digital campaigns, employing armies of strategists and algorithms. The reality is quite different: the AfD’s social media success stems from its complete lack of polish.
AfD politicians and influencers communicate with raw, unfiltered emotion. There’s no PR team smoothing the edges, no careful messaging discipline. When they’re angry, they show it. When they feel victimized, they express it. This authenticity—or at least the appearance of it—resonates powerfully in an age when voters are exhausted by carefully calibrated political speak.
Traditional politicians often sound like they’re reading from a script. AfD figures sound like they’re speaking from the heart, even when (or especially when) they’re saying something outrageous. In the attention economy of social media, this raw emotional content cuts through the noise.
A Provocative Counter-Strategy
Perhaps most controversially, Ahrens proposes fighting fire with fire. He suggests confronting the AfD and its supporters using their own social Darwinist logic—labeling them as “asocial” and “failures” by the very standards they claim to champion.
This is a deliberately provocative suggestion. The AfD often employs rhetoric about strength, success, and meritocracy, while simultaneously presenting itself as the voice of the “left behind.” Ahrens argues this contradiction should be exposed mercilessly. If you believe in survival of the fittest, why are you on the ocean floor? If you celebrate strength and success, why have you failed to thrive in the system you claim should reward the worthy?
This strategy is morally complex and potentially dangerous. It risks further alienating already marginalized people and could deepen social divisions. Yet it reflects a growing frustration among those fighting the AfD: traditional appeals to democratic values and rational argument seem to bounce off a voter base that has fundamentally given up on the system.
The Broader Implications
What makes this analysis so unsettling is its implications for German democracy. If these insights are correct, the AfD isn’t just capitalizing on temporary discontent or economic anxiety. It’s tapping into a deep well of psychological despair and disorientation.
People experiencing “politicized depression” don’t want policy tweaks or better communication from mainstream parties. They want to burn down a system they believe has already failed them. They’re not looking for hope; they’ve moved beyond hope to a kind of nihilistic anger.
This presents an enormous challenge for Germany’s democratic parties. How do you reach people who have fundamentally checked out of the system? How do you offer optimism to those who have embraced pessimism as their worldview? And how do you compete with a party that has made authenticity—real or performed—its brand, when your entire political culture is built on careful consensus and measured rhetoric?
Looking Forward
Germany stands at a crossroads. The AfD’s support isn’t just a protest vote or a temporary aberration. It represents a significant portion of the population that feels existentially threatened and psychologically adrift. Understanding this isn’t about excusing extremism—it’s about grasping the depth of the challenge facing German democracy.
The question isn’t just how to defeat the AfD electorally, but how to address the underlying conditions that have allowed so many Germans to sink to the ocean floor. Without confronting the pessimism, anxiety, and sense of abandonment that fuel the party’s rise, Germany’s mainstream politicians may find themselves repeatedly surprised by just how deep that ocean floor really is—and how many of their fellow citizens are willing to make it their home.
Germansplainer 
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